A 2,400-year-old iron foundry has been discovered in Senegal With 100 tons of slag, 35 furnace bases, and signs of nearly eight centuries of continuous metallurgical activity.

Excavations in Senegal reveal iron smelting workshop used for almost eight centuries, with 100 tons of slag and rare technique.

Fully 72% of responding foundries described their economic outlook for 2026 as positive whereas only 14% described it as negative. More than half of the respondents indicated casting sales have increased in the past 90 days, while only 20% have seen a decline.

“Factors contributing appreciably to the growing economic optimism,” said AFS CEO Doug Kurkul, “include the AFS-backed 2025 tax bill which encourages capital investment, along with increased infrastructure investment stemming from the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure bill, productivity growth, and defense spending. The ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ alone will add 0.9% to GDP growth this year, according to the Congressional Budget Office.”

In January, AFS projected casting sales will grow by 4.2% in 2026, with 52% of the growth coming from pricing adjustments and 48% coming from tonnage increases. AFS will provide its Corporate Members with an updated mid-year Forecast & Trends document again in July.

The casting industry still faces considerable challenges. Survey respondents cited inflation (in areas including energy, health care, insurance and materials) as well as worker shortages and lingering concerns about demand for castings among their top challenges. With 95% of foundries making capital investments in 2026, it is further evidence of the industry’s resilience in the face of significant challenges.

To see a summary of the Quarterly Metalcasters Outlook Survey for the first quarter, click here.

Last month, 1.97 million tons of steel were produced in basic oxygen furnaces (+7.3% y/y; -10.9% m/m), and 860,000 tons in electric arc furnaces (-0.4% y/y; -1% m/m).

Pig iron production in February rose by 6.1% y/y but fell by 11.3% month-on-month to 1.8 million tons. Hot-rolled steel production increased by 8.3% y/y – to 2.56 million tons, matching the previous month’s figure.

In the first two months of this year, steel output in Germany totaled 5.91 million tons (+9.9% y/y). However, as noted by the industry association, despite this positive trend, production levels remain below the long-term average.

As a reminder, in 2025, Germany reduced steel production by 8.6% compared to 2024, down to 34.09 million tons. Last year, 23.64 million tons of steel were produced in basic oxygen furnaces (-10.7% y/y), and 10.44 million tons in electric arc furnaces (-3.5% y/y). Pig iron production over the 12-month period fell by 10.1% y/y, to 21.87 million tons. Rolled steel production decreased by 5.5% y/y, to 29.76 million tons.

While emerging technologies aim to broaden the range of iron ore grades suitable for low-emissions steelmaking, they will need time to scale and compete with established processes. In the meantime, the industry will continue to rely on mature DR technologies, which in turn will require greater availability of high-quality DR-grade iron ore.

Whether DR-grade iron ore becomes a constraint on low-emissions steel production will depend on future demand growth, driven primarily by the global expansion of direct reduction plants, and on how quickly iron ore producers can develop new capacity at scale.

Not all direct reduced iron (DRI) producers have access to DR-grade feedstock domestically, and an increasing number of new plants are coming online that do not have a dedicated local pellet supply source. This trend will place additional pressure on the global seaborne market for DR-grade iron ore. Most forecasts point to rising demand for DR-grade material, and many studies suggest that a supply deficit is likely to widen beyond 2030.

BloombergNEF expects a deficit of 15 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) by 2030, widening to 133MTPA by 2040. Midrex has also flagged a potential supply shortfall, of up to 16.4MTPA by 2034. This outlook presents significant challenges for DRI producers, while creating potential opportunities for emerging suppliers, including Australia.

Iron ore is Australia’s largest export. However, with the long-term outlook for BF-grade iron ore declining, the global shift toward DR-grade material presents a significant opportunity for Australia to reposition and strengthen its role in the evolving low-emissions steel value chain.

Countries such as Canada, Brazil, and Sweden, along with emerging suppliers across Africa, are positioning themselves to support the growth in high-grade iron ore supply, with numerous projects in the pipeline. 

Some companies are focusing on upgrading the quality of their existing products, primarily BF-grade material, in an approach that is also relevant to Australia’s concentrate producers. A second strategy involves expanding capacity at existing operations wherever feasible, as demonstrated by Brazilian miners such as Vale and Samarco.

The third pathway involves greenfield development, which is the primary focus in Australia. The industry in Australia must remain competitive not only against existing producers that are expanding capacity, but also against those investing to improve product quality.

Although Australia’s DR-grade feed production sits at the higher end of the global cost curve, the market appears to have sufficient capacity to absorb additional Australian supply. This is particularly the case if domestic production exceeds future local demand, as Australia positions itself to become a major producer of green iron.

While Australia may not currently have the highest-quality iron ore readily available for this transition, it holds significant potential in magnetite mining, which is key to producing high-grade ore. 

Unlike Australia, countries such as Brazil, Canada and African nations are navigating this transition through established producers and major corporations, including Vale, ArcelorMittal, Anglo American, Rio Tinto, and China Baowu. In contrast, the transition in Australia is largely being driven by new entrants. With flagship projects such as Razorback by Magnetite Mines, Hawsons Iron, and CEIP, along with others in development, Australia is well positioned to remain competitive.

In terms of time to market, decisive, timely action will be critical for Australia to keep pace with global developments in low-emissions ironmaking. While production from new deposits may remain a decade away, this timing could align well with the expected global wave of new DRI projects.

Based on the maturity of various technologies in the pipeline, and considering the urgency of moving to a green economy, Australia is unlikely to become a green iron superpower without producing high-grade ore for DRI production. Even if Australia chooses not to export high-grade iron ore at scale, supplying suitable material for low-emissions ironmaking domestically will still require the production of high-grade ores in the short-to-medium term. 

In the first half of March, the market was supported primarily by supply concerns. Key drivers included restrictions on BHP’s shipments to China, uncertainty surrounding imports of certain cargoes, and the risk of disruptions in Australia. High freight costs and expectations that Chinese steelmakers would restock following the gradual lifting of temporary production restrictions provided additional support. China’s government guidance of 4.5–5% GDP growth for 2026 also added some optimism, supporting expectations for demand for steel and raw materials.

At the same time, the market remained highly sensitive to news developments. As early as March 16–18, prices fluctuated due to easing concerns over a shortage of BHP raw materials and weak fundamental demand indicators. The start of the peak construction season in China was sluggish, steelmakers’ margins remained low, and pig iron output did not show steady growth. Steel mills largely adhered to a procurement strategy without actively building inventories, which limited the potential for ore price increases.

Toward the end of the month, external macroeconomic and geopolitical factors further influenced market dynamics. The conflict surrounding Iran supported energy and logistics costs, providing cost-based support for seaborne shipments. In addition, tense negotiations between China Mineral Resources Group and major suppliers, primarily BHP, created a local shortage of certain ore grades in the spot market, even despite generally high stockpiles in Chinese ports.

Weather-related risks in Australia emerged as a separate driver. In late March, the threat of Cyclone Narelle and the temporary closure of several ports in the Pilbara region briefly pushed prices higher. However, once the extent of the disruptions proved to be limited, the market partially retreated. On March 25, environmental restrictions on steel production in Hebei Province created additional pressure, dampening expectations for raw material consumption.

In the short term, the iron ore market is likely to remain volatile within a range close to current levels. Prices will be supported by risks of supply disruptions, high energy costs, and the gradual recovery of pig iron production in China. At the same time, high port inventories, weak margins for steelmakers, and cautious purchasing by mills will limit further growth.

China Mineral Resources Group, a Chinese state-owned buyer, has called on traders to refrain from purchasing new shipments from BHP Group, according to Bloomberg.

The call was made after it was discovered that traders were violating restrictions on these purchases.

CMRG and BHP have been unable to make progress in negotiations on long-term contracts for several months, which the former is conducting on behalf of Chinese factories.

In September 2025, the state buyer ordered steelmakers to stop purchasing BHP’s Jimblebar fine-grade blend and subsequently restricted purchases of all new dollar-denominated products from the company. This was followed by a ban on another grade, Jinbao.

According to Reuters, citing two sources, China Mineral Resources Group told several traders this week to buy less of BHP’s flagship products: Mac fines, Newman fines, and Newman lumps.

In February, two iron ore traders told the agency that CMRG had instructed them to obtain permission before purchasing any BHP sea cargoes. They submitted their applications and have not received a response since.

Jimblebar stocks at some major Chinese ports rose to a record 9.8 million tonnes by February 26, up 457% from the end of September, two separate trading sources said.

CMRG was established in 2022 to centralize iron ore procurement and obtain better terms from major mining companies.

Earlier, it was reported that BHP was looking for alternative buyers for ore amid a contract dispute with China. The company shipped Jimblebar ore to Malaysia and Vietnam in January 2026 and December last year.

In volume terms, global pig iron output in 2026 is estimated at approximately 1.48 billion metric tons, aligned with crude steel production nearing 2 billion metric tons globally. Asia-Pacific accounts for nearly 68% of total production, with China alone contributing over 55% of global pig iron supply, followed by India at roughly 9–10% share. Infrastructure spending exceeding USD 3 trillion annually worldwide, coupled with industrial recovery across emerging markets, continues to sustain steady consumption. While environmental regulations and decarbonization investments are reshaping production economics, pig iron remains indispensable to global steel value chains in 2026.

How Big is the Pig Iron Industry in 2026?

The global pig iron industry in 2026 represents a substantial segment of the broader steel value chain, with the market valued at approximately USD 656.08 billion, up from USD 642.34 billion in 2025. In volume terms, worldwide pig iron production is estimated at nearly 1.48 billion metric tons, supporting global crude steel output approaching 1.95–2.0 billion metric tons. Pig iron remains the dominant feedstock for basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steelmaking, accounting for nearly 70–75% of primary steel production inputs globally.

Asia-Pacific leads production with roughly 68% market share, driven primarily by China, which produces more than 820–850 million metric tons annually. India follows with approximately 130 million metric tons, reflecting strong infrastructure and industrial demand growth exceeding 7% annually. Europe contributes nearly 110 million metric tons, while North America produces around 30–35 million metric tons, supplemented by imports.

From a demand perspective, the construction sector consumes nearly 52% of steel derived from pig iron, followed by automotive (12%), machinery (8%), and energy infrastructure (7%). Despite environmental cost pressures and decarbonization mandates, the industry maintains steady expansion at a projected 2.14% CAGR through 2035, underscoring its structural importance to global industrial development.

What Are Pig Iron Companies?

Pig iron companies are industrial enterprises engaged in the production of pig iron through blast furnace operations, using iron ore, metallurgical coke, and limestone as primary raw materials. These firms typically operate as part of integrated steel plants, where pig iron serves as the intermediate product for crude steel manufacturing. Globally, more than 85% of pig iron production is controlled by vertically integrated steel producers, while the remaining share comes from standalone merchant pig iron exporters supplying electric arc furnace (EAF) operators and foundries.

In 2026, the global pig iron market is valued at USD 656.08 billion, with production reaching nearly 1.48 billion metric tons. Leading pig iron companies are concentrated in Asia-Pacific, which accounts for nearly 68% of global output, followed by Europe (~7–8%) and North America (~2–3%). Major producers such as Baowu, HBIS, Tata Steel, NLMK Group, and NSSMC operate large-scale blast furnaces with individual capacities exceeding 3–5 million metric tons per furnace annually.

These companies generate revenues ranging from USD 10 billion to over USD 150 billion annually, depending on integration level and steel production scale. Increasingly, pig iron companies are investing billions in decarbonization technologies, including hydrogen-based ironmaking and carbon capture systems, to comply with tightening global emission regulations.

Global Growth Insights unveils the top List global Pig Iron Companies:

Why Is the Pig Iron Market Growing Across Major Regions in 2026?

The global pig iron market, valued at USD 656.08 billion in 2026, continues to expand steadily at a 2.14% CAGR through 2035, supported by infrastructure modernization, automotive recovery, renewable energy investments, and industrial manufacturing growth. With global production nearing 1.48 billion metric tons, regional dynamics are increasingly shaped by domestic steel demand, decarbonization mandates, and supply chain localization. Leading companies such as Baowu, HBIS, Tata Steel, NLMK Group, NSSMC, SAIL, ANSTEEL GROUP, Metalloinvest, and Vedanta are strategically expanding or modernizing pig iron capacity to capture long-term growth opportunities.

How Is North America Contributing to Pig Iron Growth?

North America accounts for approximately 35 million metric tons of pig iron production annually, representing around 3% of global output. The United States dominates regional production with nearly 25 million metric tons, while Canada contributes roughly 8–10 million metric tons.

The U.S. steel industry, producing around 85 million metric tons of crude steel in 2026, continues to rely partially on imported merchant pig iron, particularly from Brazil and Eastern Europe, covering nearly 25% of domestic pig iron requirements. Infrastructure spending under multi-year federal programs exceeding USD 1 trillion is driving structural steel demand growth of nearly 4% annually.

Global players such as NLMK Group maintain downstream operations in the U.S., while NSSMC and Tata Steel serve automotive clients through North American partnerships. Opportunities exist in low-carbon ironmaking, with hydrogen-based pilot projects emerging as a future investment avenue.

What Is Driving Pig Iron Demand in Europe?

Europe produces approximately 105–110 million metric tons of pig iron annually, accounting for nearly 7–8% of global production. Key producing countries include:

• Germany: 30 million metric tons
• Russia: 60 million metric tons
• Ukraine: 20 million metric tons
• Italy: 10 million metric tons

Companies such as NLMK Group, Metalloinvest, Metinvest, and NSSMC (European operations) play critical roles in supplying pig iron to automotive and machinery manufacturers. Germany alone contributes nearly 25% of EU crude steel output, with pig iron serving as a primary input for high-grade flat steel production.

However, European growth remains moderate at 1.5–2.5% CAGR, largely constrained by stringent carbon regulations. EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) carbon prices exceeding EUR 80 per ton of CO₂ significantly impact blast furnace economics. In response, companies like Metalloinvest and NSSMC are investing billions in hydrogen-based iron reduction technologies to align with 2050 carbon neutrality targets.

Despite regulatory pressures, renewable energy infrastructure, offshore wind installations, and EV manufacturing expansion provide stable demand support across Western Europe.

Why Does Asia-Pacific Dominate the Global Pig Iron Industry?

Asia-Pacific accounts for nearly 68% of global pig iron production, exceeding 1 billion metric tons annually. The region’s dominance is led by China and India.

• China: 830–850 million metric tons (over 55% global share)
• India: 130 million metric tons (~9–10% share)
• Japan: 70 million metric tons
• South Korea: 45 million metric tons

Chinese giants such as Baowu, HBIS, ANSTEEL GROUP, Shougang, and Benxi Steel continue to consolidate capacity, improve blast furnace efficiency, and shift toward high-end pig iron grades. China’s infrastructure and manufacturing investments exceeding USD 2 trillion annually sustain large-scale demand.

India represents the fastest-growing major market, expanding at 6–8% annually, driven by a USD 1.4 trillion National Infrastructure Pipeline. Companies including Tata Steel, SAIL, Vedanta, NINL, and Mesco Steel are expanding integrated steel capacity, adding several million tons of pig iron output between 2025 and 2027.

Japan’s NSSMC focuses on specialty and automotive-grade pig iron feedstock, while regional decarbonization efforts push hydrogen-based pilot trials across major plants.

Asia-Pacific remains the primary growth engine due to urbanization, industrial expansion, and export competitiveness.

What Opportunities Are Emerging in the Middle East & Africa?

The Middle East & Africa (MEA) region produces approximately 20–25 million metric tons of pig iron annually, representing under 2% of global production, yet growth prospects are significant at 5–6% CAGR.

Key countries include:

• Saudi Arabia: Expanding industrial diversification under Vision 2030
• UAE: Steel capacity modernization projects
• South Africa: Mining-integrated pig iron production

MEA infrastructure investments exceeding USD 500 billion in planned projects are increasing regional steel consumption. African construction demand is growing at nearly 5% annually, supported by urban housing, transportation corridors, and renewable energy installations.

International suppliers including Baowu, Tata Steel, and Metalloinvest export pig iron to the region, while long-term investment opportunities exist in localized blast furnace capacity and green iron production utilizing abundant solar energy resources.

Global Distribution of Pig Iron Manufacturers by Country in 2026

Opportunities for Startups & Emerging Players in the Pig Iron Industry (2026)

In 2026, the global pig iron market valued at USD 656.08 billion presents targeted but high-impact opportunities for startups and emerging players, particularly in technology, sustainability, and supply chain optimization. While large integrated producers such as Baowu, Tata Steel, HBIS, and NLMK Group dominate bulk production, structural transformation toward low-carbon metallurgy is creating space for innovation-driven entrants.

One of the most significant opportunities lies in green iron production technologies. With the steel industry responsible for nearly 7–8% of global CO₂ emissions, global investments exceeding USD 15–20 billion have been committed to hydrogen-based direct reduction and blast furnace decarbonization projects. Startups developing hydrogen injection systems, carbon capture modules, and energy efficiency AI platforms can tap into a decarbonization market expected to grow at 8–10% annually through 2035.

Digital optimization of blast furnace operations represents another growth avenue. Advanced analytics and AI-based process monitoring can improve fuel efficiency by 3–5%, potentially saving large steel plants millions of dollars annually. Industrial IoT solutions targeting predictive maintenance can reduce downtime by 10–15%, improving overall asset utilization.

Emerging players can also focus on specialty and merchant pig iron segments, including low-phosphorus and foundry-grade pig iron, where demand is growing at nearly 5–6% CAGR, driven by automotive casting and wind turbine component manufacturing.

Additionally, developing economies across India, Southeast Asia, and Africa, where steel demand is expanding at 6–7% annually, offer opportunities for small-scale, regionally integrated pig iron units leveraging local iron ore resources.

Overall, while capital intensity remains high, technology-enabled, sustainability-focused, and niche-grade production strategies offer scalable entry points for startups in 2026.

FAQ – Global Pig Iron Companies

1. How large is the global pig iron industry in 2026?

The global pig iron market is valued at approximately USD 656.08 billion in 2026, up from USD 642.34 billion in 2025. In volume terms, global production is estimated at nearly 1.48 billion metric tons, supporting crude steel output close to 2 billion metric tons worldwide.

2. Which country produces the most pig iron?

China leads global production with approximately 830–850 million metric tons, accounting for over 55% of global output. It is followed by India (~130 million metric tons, 9–10% share), Japan (~70 million metric tons), and Russia (~55–60 million metric tons).

3. Who are the leading global pig iron companies?

Major producers include Baowu, HBIS, ANSTEEL GROUP, Shougang, Tata Steel, SAIL, NLMK Group, Metalloinvest, Metinvest, and NSSMC. Baowu alone produces over 130 million metric tons of crude steel annually, making it the largest steel producer globally.

4. What industries drive pig iron demand?

The construction sector accounts for nearly 52% of steel consumption derived from pig iron. Automotive contributes around 12%, machinery 8%, and energy infrastructure approximately 7%.

5. What is the projected growth rate of the pig iron market?

The industry is projected to grow at a 2.14% CAGR from 2026 to 2035, reaching nearly USD 793.82 billion by 2035.

6. What are the key challenges facing pig iron companies?

The primary challenge is decarbonization, as steel production contributes nearly 7–8% of global CO₂ emissions. Carbon pricing in Europe exceeds EUR 80 per ton of CO₂, increasing operational costs for blast furnace operators.

Conclusion

The global pig iron industry in 2026 stands as a foundational pillar of the steel value chain, with a market valuation of USD 656.08 billion and projected growth toward USD 793.82 billion by 2035, expanding at a steady 2.14% CAGR. In volume terms, global production is estimated at nearly 1.48 billion metric tons, supplying close to 70–75% of primary steelmaking requirements worldwide. Asia-Pacific dominates the landscape with approximately 68% of global output, led by China’s contribution of over 830 million metric tons, while India continues to expand rapidly with production exceeding 130 million metric tons annually.

Leading companies such as Baowu, HBIS, ANSTEEL GROUP, Tata Steel, SAIL, NLMK Group, Metalloinvest, NSSMC, and Shougang collectively control a significant portion of global blast furnace capacity, with individual enterprises generating annual revenues ranging from USD 12 billion to over USD 150 billion. Construction remains the primary demand driver, accounting for nearly 52% of steel consumption, followed by automotive and industrial manufacturing sectors.

Despite stable growth, the industry faces structural transformation due to environmental pressures, as steelmaking contributes approximately 7–8% of global carbon emissions. With over USD 15 billion committed globally to hydrogen-based and low-carbon ironmaking technologies, the future competitiveness of pig iron companies will increasingly depend on efficiency, sustainability, and technological modernization.

Though the duration of the conflict remains uncertain, “you can never be too prepared,” she added.

Meanwhile, data collected before the war began showed the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the second month in a row—though only the third time in 40 months—according to the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI Report, released Monday.

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 52.4% in February, down just 0.2% from January’s reading.

“In February, U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, although growing at a slower pace than the month before,” Spence said in a statement. “Of the five subindexes that make up the PMI, two (New Orders and Production) indicated slower growth compared to the previous month, and the Employment and Inventories indexes remained in contraction.”

Though survey respondents continued to cite tariff instability as a challenge, others expressed more positive sentiments.

“Business is improving by the week,” an executive from the fabricated-metal industry commented. “Backlog is growing, and opportunities are everywhere. Monthly shipments are still lower than planned, but improving.”

Prices for Qingdao iron ore (KORE 62% Fe) fell by 6.3% to $100.26/t CFR between December 26, 2025, and February 20, 2026. Currently, quotations are at their lowest level since August 2025.

At the beginning of 2026, the iron ore market was influenced by a combination of seasonal and fundamental factors that gradually shifted the balance toward excess supply. Although prices attempted to stabilize at the end of January due to pre-holiday restocking by Chinese steelmakers ahead of the Lunar New Year, this effect proved to be short-lived.

In the second half of January, prices were temporarily supported by purchases from steel mills, which were building up stocks to ensure continuous operation during the holidays. Futures markets and rising coking coal prices were additional factors for optimism. However, even during this period, statistics showed a deterioration in fundamental indicators: steel inventories at plants grew, and construction activity declined due to weather conditions and the seasonal slowdown.

By the end of January, support from restocking began to run out. Steel producers limited purchases due to weak margins and cautious financial policies, while port ore stocks in China approached multi-year highs. Additional pressure came from expectations of environmental restrictions and a slower-than-expected recovery in pig iron production.

In early February, the market entered a downward phase. After the pre-holiday purchasing season ended, demand fell sharply, while supply remained high. Even weather risks in Australia and temporary supply disruptions failed to support prices, as excess inventories offset any shortages. At the same time, new shipments of high-quality ore from the Simandou project began to arrive, reinforcing expectations of global supply growth in the medium term.

During the holiday period, liquidity fell sharply, traders closed their positions, and futures continued to weaken. Low demand from Chinese steelmakers remained a key market factor.

After the holidays in China, a short technical recovery in prices is possible due to the return of mills to purchasing. However, fundamentally, the market remains in a negative phase, as high inventories, weak construction activity, and a gradual increase in supplies (particularly from Simandou) will limit growth potential. In the coming months, prices are likely to fluctuate around or slightly above $95-105/t CFR, with the risk of further declines in the event of weak steel demand in China.

In January 2026, Brazil increased its iron ore exports by 6.3% year-on-year – to 28.99 million tons. This is evidenced by data on ship composition collected by BigMint.

Compared to December 2025, this figure fell by 22.7%.

China remained the largest importer of Brazilian iron ore during the period, accounting for 18.39 million tons of January shipments. It is followed by India (0.87 million tons) and Bahrain (0.86 million tons).

Ore exports from Brazil fell sharply in the first month of this year due to fierce competition from Australian raw materials, which reduced its attractiveness on the market. Supplies from the country to world markets were also temporarily slowed down by scheduled maintenance of key Brazilian export terminals.

At the same time, steel mills, especially in China, remained cautious in their purchases, replenishing their stocks ahead of the Lunar New Year.

It should be noted that at the end of last year, iron ore exports from Brazil reached a record level of 416.4 million tons, up 7.1% year-on-year, according to data from the country’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services. This was the first time that the annual figure exceeded 400 million tons, breaking the previous record of 390 million tons set in 2018. Exports were strong in the last months of the year, exceeding 40 million tons in October and December, which is close to the monthly record.

As reported by GMK Center, Brazilian mining companies increased their exports of iron ore (HS 2601) by 2.9% in 2024 compared to 2023, from 378.14 million tons to 389.02 million tons. China became its main consumer. In 2024, supplies to Chinese steel companies increased by 6.4% compared to 2023, to 276.79 million tons, which is 71.2% of total exports.

In January, average prices for Indian and Russian pig iron rose by $20–30 per tonne. This was due to increased demand in Turkey, the strengthening of the ruble, and the emergence of financial obligations within the CBAM for deliveries to the EU.

At the same time, according to Kallanish, prices for Brazilian pig iron stabilized at $410/ton FOB in January, although producers sought to dictate higher prices, expecting growth in demand from European buyers. However, demand from European consumers, who showed active interest in importing Brazilian pig iron at the end of 2024, was limited last month. Therefore, the main sales destination was the US.

At the same time, pig iron exports from Brazil continued to decline. In December, they fell by 23% month-on-month to 273,000 tons after falling by 23% month-on-month in November. The main reason for the decline was a 27% month-on-month decrease in exports to the US to 211,000 tons at a price of $392/ton on FOB terms. At the same time, Brazilian pig iron exports grew by 7.8% y/y over the past year to 4 million tons at an average price of $412/ton.

According to the Brazilian Steelmakers Association (IAB), pig iron production in Brazil is recovering: in December, output amounted to 2.2 million tons, which is 1.7% more than in November. At the same time, production decreased by 1% y/y to 26.2 million tons in 2025.

As expected, the introduction of CBAM has changed the structure of pig iron supplies to Italy, creating chaos and uncertainty throughout the industry. Thanks to low CBAM payments, Brazil is now the sole supplier of pig iron to Italy. Supplies from Ukraine, which were priced at $430/t (CFR) in December, became uncompetitive in January.

According to Kallanish, January prices for pig iron in Italy are approximately $30/t higher than in December. According to the latest data, prices at the end of January were recorded at $460–470/t on CFR Italy terms, excluding CBAM payments.

At the same time, mills and distributors are mostly refraining from purchases amid high prices. This is especially true since they purchased significant volumes at the end of 2024 to avoid additional CBAM costs. In particular, in December, Brazil shipped 60,000 tons of pig iron to Europe at a price of $389/t on FOB terms.

A similar situation is observed in the Black Sea pig iron market: average prices (on a Black Sea FOB basis) rose by $23 in January to $335/t. Prices for Russian billets in the Black Sea rose due to the strengthening of the ruble. To maintain profitability, Russian suppliers were forced to raise prices. At the same time, demand for such products is insufficient, as not all buyers are willing to accept the price increases.

Turkish steel mills are increasingly relying on Russian pig iron, for which Turkey has become the main market. Imports of pig iron from Russia to the EU have been banned since the beginning of this year, and the quota for 2025 was exhausted in February last year.

According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), pig iron imports to Turkey in 2025 amounted to 2.31 million tons (+54% y-o-y). Russia became the leading supplier, shipping 1.8 million tons (+83% y/y), increasing its share in total imports to 78%, compared to 66% in 2024.

Against the backdrop of growing imports, Turkey’s own pig iron production is declining. According to WorldSteel, last year’s output fell by 5% y/y to 9.7 million tons. At the same time, in December, production grew for the fifth consecutive month by 24% y/y to 930,000 tons, which somewhat offset the overall decline for the year.

In other regional markets, pig iron prices rose at different rates. Domestic prices for pig iron in China (including 13% VAT) rose by $7 to $415/t in January. According to Metallplace, quotations for pig iron on the Indian market jumped by $33 to $373/t last month. Indian suppliers raised their prices amid the emergence of CBAM payment costs in the EU and increased supplies to Turkey, where Indian cast iron accounted for 5% of the market last year with 110,000 tons (a threefold increase year-on-year). However, there is currently no evidence that European buyers are interested in Indian pig iron in the long term.

As previously reported, global pig iron production in 2025 decreased by 1.7% compared to the previous year, to 1.37 billion tons. The largest pig iron producing countries last year were: China – 836 million tons (-3% y/y), India – 154.4 million tons (+6.7% y/y), and Japan – 58.5 million tons (-4.2% y/y).

The transaction places one of Brazil’s key aluminum platforms at the center of a high-stakes partnership between a London-based mining heavyweight and China’s state-backed metals giant.

Joint Venture Structure and Premium Offer

Under the agreement announced late Thursday, Chalco and Rio Tinto will purchase Votorantim’s 68.596% interest in CBA through a jointly owned vehicle. The venture will be controlled 67% by Chalco and 33% by Rio Tinto.

The buyers will pay 10.50 Brazilian reais per share — about $2 — in cash. The offer represents a premium of roughly 21.2% over CBA’s 20-day volume-weighted average share price through Jan. 28, signaling a deliberate move to secure control at an attractive but assertive valuation.

Once the acquisition closes, the joint venture intends to launch a mandatory tender offer for the remaining shares not held by Votorantim, in accordance with Brazilian law. That step would extend the reach of the new owners across CBA’s full shareholder base.